More Articles by Bob
Drought and the Economy 2011-2019, US and China
How to Survive the Great Depression of 2011-2012
5 Things the media forgot to ask during the 2010 elections
2010 Election and the 2012 Republican President
The Great Depression, is history repeating itself? A historical perspective
Some accurate predictions by Bob
Surviving debt collection for the next few decades
Housing Panic of 2009
to Survive the Great Stagnation of 2009 - 2015
Depression II, are the signs there?
to rent safely during the depression
to Survive the Great Depression of 2008- 2009
of the coming Real Estate Bubble?
Some of the accurate predictions from
my articles about the Real Estate crash, the Depression, and Political Events.
Updated as of May 27th, 2009
most predictions were made 5 months to years in advance. Usually exact dates, events, and numbers.My hope is you will read my newer articles and make wise decisions. I am selling no books, not part of any political party, and have no agenda in this other than to help others.
Covers Articles written in 2005, 2008, and 2009.
2005 -excerpts from Articles "Sell your home now, or risk the coming real estate crash" and "Omens of the coming real estate bubble"
In these two articles I tried to warn people. The local news station called me about the second one but thought I was a loon and never did a story on it. You decide below.
13th 2005 - it is time to sell if you own investments......corporate
investors are thinking "time to sell and get out". People are
jumping in to get rich quick on what may be the tail end of the bubble.
When rates go high enough even an adjustable or an interest-only loan will not allow people to afford a home at these prices. The sellers market is over when that happens.
Trouble is, some 80% of all loans written this year were 3 year adjustable mortgages and interest only loans. That is a lot of people who are 'hoping' to not be in financial trouble.
Sounded crazy back then, but......
13th 2005 - Your wonderful lawmakers, bowing to special
interests who know the crash is coming, have changed the bankruptcy laws.
To make such a huge change in the bankruptcy laws at the behest of credit card companies and lenders at this time can only be looked at as an indicator of what is going to happen.
Only the most dense cannot see this as a 'pre-emptive strike' against defaults that are on the way.
On Jan 11th, 2009, the FED bank of New York now says the US Mortgage meltdown is linked to the 2005 bankruptcy law
13th 2005 - I say sell now and put the money in the bank.
All of it. Rent a house for a year or so and get ready for some super bargains
to be had as people unload their 2nd, 3rd, and other investment properties.
Those who need to sell will sell and sell low.
Prices will probably stagnate as they did in the 90s after the last Real Estate bust, so deals will be everywhere as people try to save themselves financially
Renting after selling your home could keep you from losing a ton of equity and possibly not being able to afford your home as rates make re-financing impossible.
Well, that speaks for itself.
13th 2005 - If ever there is a time to sell it is now.
Do not wait 40 years to get your equity out. Home prices can and do fall after a real estate bust.
Sell high, rent and wait, then buy low next year or the year after.
Well, partially right...we can see that 2007/2008 was still not the time to buy, but when you go two years in the future you can start being off on the timing. But for many they thought it was a good time to buy.
|December 28th 2005 - Back in May of this year (2005) I wrote a column about the housing bubble. My prediction was ‘after the new bankruptcy laws go into effect, it will start to burst.’ Was I right?|
Click on any of these graphs to see how September was the top of the boom and October 2005 was the start of the fall.
28th 2005 - Many may have to sell causing a huge inventory
to appear. This makes it a buyer's market and prices will drop considerably,
or so I predict.
My advice, if you are not a seasoned investor and your mortgages are ARMS and I/O's because you could not afford a normal mortgage, I say 'sell as fast as you can, for whatever price you can get now' or you may be in trouble
Well, it was good advice after all it seems.
|April 4th 2008 - A note: Home values never went up, only the prices. By lowering the interest rate like they did is basically like printing money and giving it to everyone. Throughout our history this has been done and always has the same results. The ability for you to buy a higher loan increased, not the value of the property. No one's income went up, in fact many are going down. 2001 prices here we come.|
And we are heading there, maybe even lower. In some places it is back to 1990s prices and dropping.
4th 2008 - Your house – lose it. Give up on it
(assuming you are having problems paying for it.)
You are not committing fraud by staying in a house you legally own.
Foreclosure is a legal action and until it is finished it is your home.
Everything in that home is yours, you can take it with you. Lenders do
not want empty houses and cannot go to foreclosure sale very easy right
now, so stay in it as long as you can.
And a year later we find people who abandoned their condos are causing the buildings to default, the whole building. Neighborhoods are empty and many homes were destroyed by looters. People should have stayed in their homes. It is better for the neighborhood and better for the home itself.
|April 4th 2008 - Wisdom – you did not get out when you could have. The experts, who have a vested interest in making you spend your money, told you it would be fine. They lied. Take care of yourself, the next year is going to be a bitch|
Well, the next year was a real bitch, wasn't it? The experts did tell you how good it was going to be didn't they?
|April 4th 2008 - Predictions for the next 12 months|
Here are the predictions that labeled me a loon on the net, see if you think I am crazy now.
|April 4th 2008 - Home prices will flip around but continue down. Drastic drop when the Dem president takes over in January (you will almost think it was timed).|
Record drop in January 2009. Record drop for first quarter of 2009.
|April 4th 2008 - After the Dems take the whitehouse the supports trying to hold up the economy will finally buckle. It's not personal, its politics. Perfect planning to ensure a Republican ticket win in 2012. Look for 2009 to be a bad year financially. Gotta love top level political strategy.|
The last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were some of the worst
in American history financially. Obama was elected on Nov 4th. A landslide was
apparent by the October crash. You be the judge.
|April 4th 2008 - Prices on condos will drop and be close to 2002/3 levels on their way down to 2001 levels. Many small condo complexes will be bought as apartments or most likely timeshares.|
Condo buildings in the boom areas are devastated. They are at those levels and in some cases lower. Although not much is said in the news, many buildings are being bought by investors to resell as timeshares. Research it and make your own decision, but I feel that this is correct to a T.
|April 4th 2008 - Home prices will fall and keep falling, then stagnate for at least 4 years. Bargain hunting time (in about 2 years). Loans will suck as 7% will be the new ‘good fixed rate.’ But your total debt will be a few hundred thousand less if you buy during the stagnate period.|
Home prices continue to fall through the 12 month period. 7% is the new good fixed rate if you are not a A+ credit buyer with 30% down. Actually, the new sub prime lenders are doing 7 to 15% as their mortgage ranges.
|April 4th 2008 - A whole bunch of fake baloney will happen on capitol hill regarding the lending industry but nothing will happen, other than your taxpayer money making sure the lenders did not lose a penny.|
Well, we pissed away 10 trillion dollars they say. They allowed the banks to borrow at zero percent (and they still are). Who do you think is going to pay for that?
|April 4th 2008 - All those bankrupt sub prime lenders? Wow, hey, they all started new companies. Wow, amazing how that worked out. Look for that beginning next year|
There are tons of new lenders called 'soft' hard-money lenders. They are like Hard money (based on equity) lenders, only require documents, some down payment, and are basically sub-prime lenders in disguise. Some even do 100% loans. And the rates are 7 to 15% while the terms are up to 30 years. Wonder where all the money comes from to fund these lenders? Look at the zero percent loans from the fed and the 10 trillion the fed is giving to financial companies and figure it out.
|April 4th 2008 - Wall street and major news outlets will continue to talk about ‘downturns’ and other things to make you feel rosy. That is mostly to suck the money out of those people who can still be gullible enough to fall for it. Remember who they work for. It ain't you.|
Everyday it was 'bottom' is here. They refused to even say recession until they finally conceded we were 11 months into one. And the market just fell and fell.
April 4th 2008 - Gold, silver, and Oil will bankrupt many as it drops to the floor, bringing dumb investors to their knees. Oh yea, oil is gonna go to two hundred you say. Hey, it is your money, go ahead and gamble it like a moron. It will start dropping back down on its way to 34 bucks a barrel by year's end (it will eventually get to 34, not at years end, but heading towards it on its way down.) As for gold and silver, if you buy it now you are really stupid.
Your news and ‘expert’ advice are all from people, or represent others, that have a vested interest in making you feel good about spending your money. When the stock market was crashing in the 20’s big business was pushing in the papers how it was just a ‘bump’ and many big companies did everything they could to make it look good. Some of the ‘high profile’ rich men would walk into the market and loudly proclaim how it was to rebound and would buy 100,000 shares of some stock. It was all BS.
Gold and silver were at the same price in April 2009 as they were in 2008. Factor in fees to buy, sell, store and you lost money. The Fed keeping rates at 0% have kept gold/silver from booming and busting, but that will have to come when they raise rates. As for Oil, well the January contracts, which ended on Dec 19th, were 33.87.
April 9th 2008 - Thinking of renting a home or are renting now? Facing foreclosure and want to rent? You may want to do a few things before you hand over your money first.
Historically, each major land bust comes with the ‘rental scam.’ It is the same one every time and for some reason no one warns you about it until it is too late
You may find out the house you are in is in foreclosure, the landlord has no insurance for renters, or the person you are paying is not the owner. Just because you have been in it for a while, even a few years, does not mean your landlord is not going belly up
And by the end of 2008 you heard of thousands of families being thrown out of their rentals. Many more dealing with owners who have taken the renter's last and security while faced with moving out of a property in foreclosure.
September 18th, 2008 - Great Depression II, are the signs there?
This article showed the similarities of speeches back then versus 2008. Then the commentary began.
September 18th 2008 - And in closing, looking at the way and the thoughts of Wall Street, the White House, and Congress, I see it repeating itself. All of their so called 'efforts' are about 'restoring consumer confidence.' This is the same thing they tried back then, it did not work. No matter how confident investors are, it is not going to pay off bad debt.
There are 3 things that happen during a disaster in your life. The first is the preparation. How are you preparing for it? The third is recovering from it, your success usually directly proportional to the first step.
The second? It is called, by me, "in the moment".. When you are 'in the moment' all you can do is hold on to your family and pray as all hell breaks loose. You cannot control 'in the moment' but you can control preparation and recovery
Lastly, before the bottom fell out, the market was rocked by a roller coaster of up/downs. This week historic rises and drops happened. Almost every day. Drops of 400 to 500 and rises of 300 to 400. You cannot ignore the warnings. The storm is here, time for preparation is over, you are now 'in the moment.'
While not clearly saying a stock crash is imminent, I think that last statement
sums it up quite well that it is coming...right now.
On September 18th the market closed at 11,019. By November 20th it was 7552.
October 1st, 2008 'How to Survive the Great Stagnation of 2009-2015'
Written Monday morning on October 1st. By weeks end the market had crashed.
October 1st 2008 - A hurricane is hitting our shores right now, a large financial hurricane
Our leaders saw this hurricane coming through the last 8 years. They ignored it. So did all the 'experts' in the banking and credit industry
It is no different than Katrina. The levees broke, towns were destroyed, and the recovery plan started with a bunch of officials flying over the damage wondering what to do.
So it will be with this financial hurricane. The political and financial
leaders did not prepare for the storm. They have no recovery plan and
will not know what to do until the storm passes
Again, I say we are 'in the moment' of a huge financial crash. Over the next 9 days the Dow lost over 3000 points
October 1st 2008 - As I write this, the senate is working on a bailout vote. In my April 2008 article I said that 'congress will make a big brouhaha on the hill and then make sure the lenders do not lose money.' They are doing that now. My guess is the actual implementation will happen after the election. We will not see the fallout from this legislation until after the new president takes the helm
In mid 2009 we will see that the lenders took advantage of the bailout and the money is gone
Look for a lot of public officials and experts to announce things like 'this will never happen again.' This is the same thing these same types of people said back in the 1930's.
With the quarterly reports due out, you can also vie for the position that the lenders want this bailout money before America learns how bad it really is
No, this bailout is not a recovery, it is a way to get a lot of money in their rafts before the boat sinks.
This next part covers predictions for the next 6 years or so. I will list the ones that have some relevance already.
1st 2008 -
Environment - Look for the idea of 'green' to stay in the public mind, but not the corporate one. This means that although we want to protect the environment most of us will be happy with whatever we can get and not get to upset at corporations taking out the environment to 'feed, clothe, and house us.'
Unions - Unions will become a bane to big business.
look for large media campaign to turn public opinion against them. Look
for legislation to take out unions. Don't think it will work? They got
you to buy a house worth 4 times its value, Got you to open unneeded drilling
areas, talked you into invading two countries, talked you into giving
all your tax money to crooked lenders. I do not see why they would not
keep that kind of shit up.
Restaurants all over are closing. A huge push to kill any pollution or energy standards in going on in the media. Lastly, December 2008 a leading political party memo was leaked stating 'lets use the auto bailout as the first salvo against unions' and at the same time a large media blitz on the government employee unions started.
1st 2008 -
Russia - . Look for help with Iranian and Venezuelan
Mexico is almost in a civil war. Russia warships visited Venz. for the first time to show support. Adult clubs, escort services, and even websites like craigslist are being attacked by law enforcement.
1st 2008 -
Extremism - In times of trouble, extremist leaders always raise their heads in racism, religionism, genderism, nationalism, etc. They believe they are noble and refuse to compromise on their principles.
Immigration has taken a huge backseat and is rarely mentioned in the political news anymore. Single mothers were attacked in a few books that came out late 2008, one notably by Ann Coulter. Political parties in the US are talking about seceding from the union, including the Governor of Texas.
October 1st 2008 - Gamble your money in the stock market and commodities, gamble your life savings, go ahead. You are not smart if you do. The chance of you making gains are low, the chance of you losing most or all are high. Why would you do that with money you cannot replace?
They will say you are not a good American to horde your money. They will play on your pride and honor. Those things will make you homeless. Think of your family first, not some a-hole on a TV news program insulting you.
Get a lot of roommates....
Be aware of depression by many who have never faced financial ruin. These are the ones that are most likely to hurt others or to commit suicide. Be wary and help as best you can your friends and family.
With the economic strife of this time, America can only become stronger by helping the economies of its neighbors to the south. Brazil and Mexico are of obvious attention and their armies will need to help fend off any struggles in South America.
Not bringing them together with America could be a potential huge problem for America for decades to come. South America should be prime importance to any president during this time
People lost their savings. People lost all to scams like Madoff. They still
say you are not a good American if you horde your money (although the banks
are hoarding it and that is okay).
Roommates are a big thing and people are not getting divorced to share costs. Handgun and ammo sales are through the roof as of may 2009. Each week a man seems to go nuts and kill himself and sometimes his family.
Late 2008 and early 2009 saw many 'family murder-suicides'.
Mexico is faltering and Brazil's leaders are saying "blonde blue eyed people destroyed the world's economy".
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