The 2010 election and what could happen in 2012
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Political Gateway - (Nov 1st, 2010)
By Bob Hoffman
It is election eve, Nov. 1st 2010. I sit here pondering this election in the U.S. and political strategies for the next 2 years. Pollsters, good at elections, are calling for the Democrats to lose big. Republicans? No, they do not win. It is the Tea Party candidates on the rise for 2010.
It is important to separate the Republicans and Tea Party when postulating the 2012 elections, the economy for the next 2 years, and the direction our country is headed in. A Tea Party win will most likely ensure a Republican president in 2012. I will try to explain that conclusion below with a look at political strategy.
The Economy over the next two years
Since the lows of early 2009 the stock market has risen over 90%, gold almost 100%, Oil 200%. This is presented as 'not a boom' but a recovery. I hear the same people telling others 'now is the time to buy real estate'. I hear the clarion call of gold sellers and the hints of inflation. The central bank of the US (known as the 'Fed') continues the manipulation of the economy by keeping rates near zero while the treasury continues to print money.
It seems we just walk off a cliff asking why we fell as we drop. So it is with this economy. My prediction is when rates rise (very soon) it should coincide with mass foreclosure possessions (already starting). This should cause rents to go way beyond 'too damn high' into more of a rental boom. It should help sell homes quicker to investors, a sort of 'foreclosure boom'.
At some point, probably when the rental boom becomes more of an eviction crisis, the price of gold, oil, and more should plummet. Stocks will fall. I know you think I am crazy to say this, but the facts are the China, Australia, and India land booms are bursting now, slowly. So are a few others in the world. Those land busts will seriously affect us.
Political Strategy and the economy
The Democrats have a vested interest to turn the coming calamity onto the Republicans. With the supposed recovery looking good now and a big downturn sometime next year, they can blame it on the republican congress as they take control with this election.
The republicans meanwhile will say the democrats and the 'extreme' tea party candidates have all the control and blame it on them. For this strategy to work, the economy must collapse sometime before or during the early part of 2012. Maybe early in the Primary 'grassroots' stuff. April maybe. The summer of fear perhaps?
With an economy on its knees and 6 years out of control of the congress, the republicans can put it all on the democrats and Tea Party officials. This should allow them to eliminate any Tea Party presidential candidate (sorry Sarah), kill Obama's chance at reelection. All while bringing in a 'moderate' conservative republican president and enough republicans in congress to control both houses and the presidency. As an added bonus, the Remaining Tea Party members in congress should easily be floated back into the fold for a real good majority.
The Tea Party can be blamed for diluting the republican party during the next few years. They will be too 'extreme' and block too much. True or not, it will be used for a reason to come back to the Republican party. This avoids republican blame for any economic problems for the next 2 years, as far as the media propaganda goes.
Back to Reality
The last collapse in 2008 saw Protectionism, attempts to destroy unions, anti-humane government spending, anti-immigrant attacks, internet censorship, and more. With a second collapse these items will be pursued with vigor. I would go so far as to suggest any political attacks like those listed, occurring during the 2008/2009 collapse, will become full on political policy.
The last 15 years have been very 'polarizing' politically. The fear that comes from economic collapse and the depression allows discourse to become quite hateful. An adult can put all that hate and fear into perspective, having grown up in the era of nuclear peace. We can think it is just a cyclical thing and the hate will go away.
A child born in 1990 and now 20 years old does not have that perspective. Nor does a 30 year old. This polarizing rhetoric has been the norm during their whole life. They have no other perspective. As they grow older and get involved over the coming decade you can see how this could get out of hand.
The lines in the sand are being drawn now because we are scared of what is happening and we do not know what to do. We do not know who to blame. In our own ways we are becoming more fearful of those we think are to blame, our neighbors.
Roosevelt once said in a speech, 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'. That line should resonate now as we see fear and hate spreading, looking for someone to blame. Each with a different worry in our life, groups we need to blame. Times like this turns fear to hate.
Our children are growing up with this hate around them 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in all the media they see. No good can come of this. The world through their eyes must indeed be a very scary place. Fear breeds hate and isolationism. Us versus them.
The republicans should win the 2012 elections, the Tea Party will fall, the Dems will be in disarray. Exciting or scary, it will happen. Remember though, the 2012 election is not going to help you pay your bills, buy food, care for your family, or better yourself.
It is a sideshow. A distraction. An illusion of leadership from all sides because they are just as scared as you. You do not know what to do and neither do the Democrat or Republican candidates. To hide this fact it must be personal attacks, who is to blame, finger pointing, Nazis and Communists, Socialists and Nationalists.
Without all that fear and hate they have nothing else to say. They have no plan, no leadership, no creativity.
A political strategist is not centering on how to solve the problems of our country. he is only looking for opportunity, money, and to win.
To the republicans in 2012, congratulations, you won. And if you lose, congratulations Democrats, you won.
Unfortunately for all of us, we lose.
Don't follow people who preach hate and fear. Certainly do not vote for them for God's sake.
If you are reading this in 2012 and it was completely wrong, do not hesitate to write me some kind of letter rubbing it in. I will be happy to read it. If I am right you probably cannot afford the internet and cannot send me any email or read this...
Update Nov 3rd
I do think the rancor of this election will subside for the 2012 Presidential election. I think it will be a quiet affair with little of the pure hate and fear of this election.
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