Drought and the Economy 2011-2019, US and China
Articles by Bob
Drought and the Economy 2011-2019, US and China
June 17th, 2011
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Political Gateway June 17th, 2011 – The long drought we are in today is akin to the drought of the 1920s-1930s Americans know as 'the Dust Bowl.' I believe meteorological history is repeating itself along with the 80 year solar cycle. I do not believe weather repeats itself exactly, but larger events like droughts and more active hurricane periods do. In my circle of friends I have been going on and on about the effects of the drought in our modern world and economy. My thoughts on fire and dust storms were met with amused but concerned looks from my friends so I took that as a hint not to write about it. I think the time to write this has arrived.
There is no dust bowl in America right now nor will there be. Improper use of land by farmers has been noted as the cause of the dust bowl. The dust bowl took years to become a disaster. With today's soil conservation methods there is no chance of a dust bowl this time around. China has not practiced soil conservation and have been experiencing large dust clouds for many years as the drought continues for them. In the 1933-1935 timeline, the storms were the worst in the US. I think the years of 2012/13 to 2015 will be the worst of the drought for the US and China. China will experience massive dust storms during this time. The Southern US will not face dust storms but will be a tinderbox due to over development.
Fires in the US are already here. The last 30 days have seen massive fires in the Everglades in Florida, Texas, and Arizona (worst in its history).
Fire and dust is not the only worry for the US and China.
A drought still has rain. Rain drenching dried out land can be a source of great disaster. Mudslides, mud rivers, and flash floods would be the most dangerous to us. This also applies to other countries that may be dealing with an excessively long drought. China is a large worry for me. The population is huge and the lay of the land lends a increased risk of floods and mudslides that could kill millions, many in the actual disaster and others after the fact due to injuries or famine.
South Florida, my home, surrounds a drained former swamp known as the Everglades. There is no easy way to deal with wild fires in the Everglades and they will burn for long periods. South Florida is under a heavy drought now for more than a decade. One danger is smoke, a great danger to children, elderly, and sensitive people. Flaming particles from those fires will be carried by the wind and land in the populated areas already extremely dry. This will cause fire issues in a heavily populated area. A last thought for South Florida pertains to the wildlife that will try to escape the fires. Alligators, panthers, snakes, bobcats, and who knows what else. How will we deal with it down here? In other southern states the same risks apply with wildlife.
In the above cases of fire, smoke, and flood/mudslides there is a surprising lack of planning in the communities facing this future in the US. China is completely blind to what they are facing, something they have faced numerous times in their past. This lack of planning is going to cause many people to lose their homes, jobs, businesses, and/or lives. We are not prepared for this and we should be.
Another effect of a long drought like this is shrinking water supplies. Here in Southeast Florida a shrinking supply means saltwater incursion, a permanent loss of fresh water. Although the water supply is shrinking the pollution put into the ground is increasing. Logic dictates parts per million of dangerous chemicals will increase, bringing more sickness and cancer clusters. People who fish in populated areas risk exposure to elevated pollutants in their food.
Does this mean we are all going to die? No. It just means we have a few years of bad drought. It will be different than before. It will end. If history rings true, by 2020 the rains should be steady enough for us to start saying it is passing, as all other droughts before have passed.
Economically the US and China droughts, and their effects, should scare speculators and drive up food prices (needlessly). By 2012 China's housing bubble (and Australia's) will be in massive burst mode, this affects gold, oil, and world financial industries who have been speculating there just as they did in the US during our housing boom. If you have read my other articles you will know I think by mid 2012 the economy will tank again (if not earlier). The drought worsening coupled with housing crashes in China and Australia make this a certainty.
Extreme weather swings like a drought seem to have a balance on the planet. I would not be shocked to see some very bad winter storms in the New England area of the US, England, and even parts of China.
Most scientists seem to discount the effect of the sun and its solar activities on our planet's weather and to a lesser degree our temporary illogical reasoning during these time periods. You have to admit the political and religious rhetoric is insane right now. Every year they learn more and still ignore it. Recently a discovery found the sun emits some kind of x-rays affecting the half-life of radioactive elements, speeding them up and slowing them down, something that turned the scientific community upside down. I may be wrong on all this, but preparing for bad times is smart in any community. I think I am right about this drought getting worse. I think it would be prudent to at least discuss this in your community.
For the last part I want to discuss hurricanes. We should have some serious hurricanes during the 2012-2019 era. There should be at least one record high cyclonic year also. We will not be pelted like 2004 and 2005. There should be some real nasty hurricanes in those years and I would be surprised if one does not hit South Florida, and one hitting somewhere from D.C to Maine. Hopefully they will all miss. The 1933 hurricane season was the worst on record...until 2005. Will the 2012/2013 season be even worse? Could be.
Whether they are bad hurricane seasons or not, you should have a plan for one. You should be prepared for during and after a hurricane.
Many of my readers only seem to want to know how to make money off other people's misfortune. So here you go: Buy stocks in things to do with fire prevention on buildings, fire fighting, masks, bags for floods, water supply companies. Lot of cheap burnt land will be available. Get out of insurance companies, they will be failing all over the place. Go have a ball and send me 10% in 6 years please.
Oh, and if you talk to Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson tell them I said they got it wrong.
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